With only two days to go until the UK goes to the polls in the EU Referendum, has the Leave campaign blown it?
So why do I think the Leave campaign has blown it
The most recent polls published on 18th June 2016, has seen a swing back to the remaining campaign and another poll has each camp neck and neck.
Last week the Leave campaign had a 5-6 point lead (10 points in one poll) and the FTSE 100 had dropped by 6% from the 8th to 14th May 2016.
Now the Remain campaign has a 2-3 point lead in one poll and the FTSE 100 has rallied to 6200.
So what has changed
A previous poll on our website EU Referendum Poll: Which politician do you trust in the EU debate? put Nigel Farage (with 74% of the vote) as the most trusted politician, however, I’m finding it hard to a see why people trust him so much.
Nigel Farage likes to be portrayed as an anti-establishment campaigner but watching him defend the “breaking point” poster and listening to him ramble on about conspiracy theories, is just laughable.
So why do I think the outcome will be a vote to remain in the European Union
- Stock markets are sentiment driven and the latest rally would indicate the UK will remain in the European Union.
- Sterling has surged over last couple of days, a gilt yields have risen.
- The EU Referendum is following the same path as the Scottish Referendum in September 2014. Alex Salmond was only interested in power, not the Scottish people and Boris Johnson is playing the same game.
I have said previously that neither campaign will influence my vote but the Leave campaign is sadly making it easier for me (and I suspect the current don’t knows) to vote Remain and not Leave.
However, I have still not made my mind up yet and it is likely that it will be sometime on Thursday when I do.
I look forward to reading your comments here and on our Facebook page.